Market Share Forecast Homework -1

Homework Market Share: Submit Excel Sheet

 

• Forecast Laredo International Airport airline enplanements using the data in the in class example. Using a 10-year average market share, develop projections for the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. Show your answers in a table.

Year	Total Airline Enplanements		Southwest Region Enplanements	Market Share (%)
1990	59,279		60,925,903	0.0973%
1991	65,651		60,467,718	0.1086%
1992	80,593		63,396,932	0.1271%
1993	92,110		64,296,680	0.1433%
1994	97,998		67,434,877	0.1453%
1995	64,198		70,689,841	0.0908%
1996	57,996		72,061,761	0.0805%
1997	61,728		74,341,596	0.0830%
1998	79,714		75,957,918	0.1049%
1999	88,969		77,056,344	0.1155%
2000	90,647		79,833,666	0.1135%
2001	82,400		80,184,741	0.1028%
Ten Year Average				???

 

2005	???	93,167,307	???
2010	???	110,022,766	???
2015	???	126,843,590	???
2020	???	143,846,242	???
2025	???	160,775,532	???

• How does this forecast differ from that using the 5-year average?

 

• Which forecast would you select and why?

 

 

Forecast Homework – Regression Analysis

 

Using data in the below in class example, forecast GA operations using effective buying income (X2) as the independent variable. Develop forecasts for the years 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2030. Show your answers in a table.

Questions:

• How does this forecast differ from that using employment as the independent variable?

• What is the coefficient of determination for this scenario and what does it imply?

 

		Service Area
Year	GA Operations (Y)	Employment (X1)	Effective Buying Income (X2)
2000	22,513	45,714	$8,433
2001	23,768	48,601	$9,207
2002	21,838	51,314	$10,106
2003	25,904	54,107	$10,457
2004	26,208	57,848	$11,055
2005	26,946	56,022	$11,016
2006	27,977	56,317	$11,399
2007	27,294	58,757	$11,883
2008	28,647	61,556	$12,119
2009	29,270	62,341	$12,213
Forecast
2010		66,533	$13,081
2015		73,491	$14,609
2020		82,189	$16,525
2030		99,584	$20,369